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  同舟共济若左右手
 
  发布时间:2009/3/25  所属期数:2009.2    被阅览数:6087次  
 

 
 

     贾峰

     若将地球诞生40多亿年的地质年代压缩成百年的话,直到她年过半百之时,地球上才有了最原始的植物和动物,而恐龙等大型爬行动物是大约在地球95岁时才出现的;在这虚拟的地球百年史中,人类是个地地道道的新成员,诞生还不到1天,欢迎我们的是一个富有生机和活力的,万紫千红的大花园。但是,我们这个初来者在对地球这个古老花园的改造上,却比地球上任何其他物种做的事情都要多。5分钟前开始的工业革命,极大改善了人类的生产和生活条件,但也对地球造成了前所未有甚至不可逆转的破坏。

     面对满目疮痍的小小星球,假如我们不正视挑战,而是循着传统工业化的道路走下去,我们人类能否在地球上继续生存下去真的是个巨大的问号。

     上世纪70年代初,罗马俱乐部之《增长的极限》发出过警报;21世纪伊始,联合国《千年生态系统评估报告》做出较为具体的表述;而2年前联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)之第四份气候变化评估报告《气候变化2007》,则把人类活动与气候变化的关系、人类需要立即行动起来减缓气候变化以及采取不同强度的减排措施的经济成本和可能结果等做出了更为详尽的情景分析。

     假若我们采取高强度的减排措施,那么到2030年全球温室气体排放可能将回落至2000年水平;若选择低强度的减排措施,则大概需要100年的时间才能回落至2000年水平。分析表明,即使采取高强度的减排措施,全球平均气温还要升高2度左右,从而导致全球20%到30%的物种灭绝。

     假设我们动作迟缓,投入不足,有可能令全球平均气温升高6度,这将意味着“绿色阔叶林将重现加拿大北极圈,而南极的腹地也会有类似的情景。然而,由于陆地大部分被淹没,动植物无法适应新的环境而有95%的物种灭绝,因此地球将面临着一个与史前大灭绝一样的最后劫难。”(《六度的变化:一个越来越热星球的未来》,马克?林纳斯,2007)。

     无论是科学家的研究报告还是马克?林纳斯先生的作品,其共同点就是希望人类能有所作为从而避免悲剧的发生。那我们到底该如何应对呢?

     2年前,在远离城市喧嚣的瑞典小镇泰勒伯里,笔者有幸参加了题为“我们究竟如何共存?”的论坛,包括瑞典国王古斯塔夫、约旦皇后拉妮亚、拉脱维亚总统弗赖贝加等在内的70多个国家的450多名政界要人、跨国公司高管、著名科学家和社会名流与会。较以往不同的是,这次论坛特意邀请了8位中国大学生参加,并打破常规专门安排一个小时的时间聆听中国青年的心声。为此我特意编排了一个10分钟的名为“同舟共济新解”的独幕剧请同学们表演。

     节目的大意是:能源和气候变化的挑战如同波涛汹涌的大海,而人类如同海上航行的一条船的一群乘客;享用高等级舱位的是大腹便便的成人(代表发达国家,其碳足迹远超世界人均水平),而拥挤在普通舱中的是囊中羞涩的少年(代表发展中国家,其碳足迹小,但随着身体的发育会有所增加)。

     海水即将漫过船舷,大家危在旦夕。此时头等舱的乘客来到经济舱,拿出一包药,声称吃了它少年可以正常发育但体重可以不再增加,这样大家可以安全地抵达陆地;不过,他补充说,少年要为这“灵丹妙药”支付一大笔费用。最终出现了3种结局。

     其一,成年人不“减肥”,也不把“灵丹妙药”降价出售;少年还在发育,船的负荷增加,慢慢在大海中倾覆。其二,成年人不“减肥”,也不把“灵丹妙药”降价出售;但聪明的少年“十年磨一剑”找到了一个能增强船舶承载能力的“秘笈”,从而确保了航行安全。此情形虽然能最终到达陆地,但是在“秘笈”发现前航船还要历尽艰险。其三,成年人意识到大家是“同舟共济”,于是开始“减肥”并把“灵丹妙药”以一美元象征性的价格卖给少年,少年成了青年但身材保持良好。在大家的共同努力下,船总负荷减少,最终安抵目的地。

     “同舟共济”的典故虽然源于2000多年前的春秋时代,但古为今用来回答面对能源、环境和气候挑战人类将如何应对却极具现实意义,就连美国新任国务卿希拉里?克林顿,也在亚洲协会的演讲中活学活用了一把。

     人类航船的下一站将是哥本哈根,假若南北之间真的能达成“同舟共济”之共识,“若左右手”般携手共进,相信哥本哈根会成为一个合格的补给站。

We Have to Help each other, Hand in Hand

     Jia Feng

     Imaging that the 4-billion-year geological age of the Earth to be condensed into one hundred years, the pristine plants and animals didn’t emerge until in its fifties, while the large reptiles such as dinosaurs appeared when it’s been ninety-five years old; in this virtual history of one hundred years, human being is definitely a new born baby in its very first day, and we are born in a big colorful garden with all vitality and energy. However, in terms of reforming this old garden, we the new comers have contributed much more than any other species on the Earth. The Industrial Revolution, which has just begun five minutes ago, greatly changed human being’s living and production conditions, resulting in unprecedented and even irreversible damage to the Earth at the same time.

     Faced with the fact that this little planet has been damaged so many times, if we follow the traditional way of industrialization without facing the challenges practically, it would be a giant question mark for whether human beings can survive longer on the Earth.

     As early as in 1970s, Club of Rome sent out the warnings in “The Limits to Growth”; and in the beginning of 21st century, United Nations’ “Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report” provided specific descriptions; and the fourth report on climate change assessment presented by UN IPCC---“Climate Change 2007” gives more detailed scenario analyses on he relations between human activities and climate change, the needs of prompt action to mitigate climate change, as well as the economic costs and probable results of different degree measures for emissions reduction.

     If we adopt strong measures for reducing emissions, by 2030, the global GHGs emission might be reduced to the level in 2000; and if we adopt weak measures, it would be one hundred years before it drops to the same level in 2000. Analyses have shown that even if we adopt strong emissions reduction measures, the global average temperature will still increase about 2 degrees, which will cause the extinction of 20%-30% species on the globe.

     And if we are slow in taking action and reluctant in making investment, the global average temperature will increase 6 degrees, which means “the green foliage forest will reappear inside the Arctic Circle in Canada, similar situation in the hinterland in South Pole. However, the land will be submerged largely, 95% species will be extinct because the plants and animals can not adapt to the new environment, as a result the Earth will be faced with the ultimate catastrophe.” (“Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet”, Mark Lynas, 2007)

     Either the scientists’ research reports or Mark Lynas’ work, they have the common ground: the avoidance of the tragedy by human actions. Then, what on earth shall we do to meet the challenges?

     Two years ago, in Tallberg, a small Sweden town far away from the boisterous cities, the author had the honor to attend the Forum of “How on earth can we live together?” with more than 450 politicians, multinational CEOs, well-known scientists and social celebrities from over 70 countries, including the Sweden King Gustaf, Jordan Queen Riana and Latvian President Vaira Vike. Different from the previous ones, eight Chinese college students were invited to attend the Forum, with an exceptional one hour for all participants to listen to Chinese young people, which had never happened before. For this special one hour, I arranged a ten-minute one-act play named as “New Understanding of ‘Help Each Other When in Same Boat’”.

     The general plot of the program is: The challenge of energy crisis and climate change is like a surfy ocean, while the human being is a group of passengers in a boat travelling across the ocean; the fancy first-class cabins are occupied by belly grown-ups (representing developed countries whose carbon footprints have far exceeded the world’s per capita level), and on the contrary, hurdled in the tourist-class cabins are the youngsters without money in their pocket (representing developing countries whose carbon footprints are small but will enlarge with the growth of their body).

     The seawater is getting closer and closer to the shipboard, everyone is in danger. At this time, one first-class passenger comes to the economy class cabin with a pack of medicine on his hand, announcing that if it is taken, the youngsters will develop their body normally without the increase of the weight, so all of them will reach the shore safe and sound. However, he adds, the youngsters must pay a lot of money for this “catholicon”. In the end, there will be three endings:

     The first scenario, the grown-ups do not want to “lose weight” or sell the “catholicon” at a bargained price; the youngsters are still growing and the boat’s load is increasing, gradually it is capsized in the ocean. The second scenario, the grown-ups refuse to “lose weight” or sell the “catholicon” at a bargained price. Nevertheless, the clever youngsters finally find out the “scripture” for strengthening the boat’s loading capability after “ten years’ diligence”, so the navigation safety is guaranteed. In this scenario, the boat finally reaches the shore, but they must endure various hardships before the “scripture” is discovered. The third scenario, the grown-ups have realized that “everybody is in the same boat and they must help each other”, and they begin to “lose weight” and sell the “catholicon” at a symbolic price of one US dollar to the youngsters, so the youngsters become the youths without their body overdeveloped. With concerted efforts by all, the total load of the boat is reduced and it reaches the destination in the end.

     The quotation of “Help each other when in the same boat” can be traced back to more than 2000 years ago. However, this saying, with such a long history, can be used today to answer the question of how to meet the challenges of energy crisis, environmental pollution and climate change. The new U.S Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been smart enough to quote it in her speech at the Asian Society meeting in February.

     The next stop for the human beings’ shipping boat will be Copenhagen, a place which I believe will become a qualified supply station as long as the consensus of “help each other when in the same boat” can be truly agreed between North and South, as long as we can go forward together “hand in hand".

 
 

 
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